Updated Info (Updated at 11PM on 10-7-12):
A high fire danger continues to look likely for tomorrow across southern MN (and much of the area for that matter) with high temps approaching 70 degrees, low humidity levels and strong winds across the area. Possibly a few isolated showers after midnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Then things dry out again until Friday with high temps in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s for the most part.
Attention then turns to the storm system forecast to move into the area into this coming weekend. Forecast models have had some issues with timing with this system but the general track (on the GFS anyhow) has remained very consistent. The ECMWF also seems to be coming more into line with what the GFS has been showing. There still is a possibility of severe weather and maybe even tornadoes though it looks like most of the threat will be into Iowa at this time (things could change though). It also depends on how much moisture can make it this far north with how dry its been in the area. In any case, even if we don’t see severe weather in our area, much needed rain is looking fairly likely throughout much of the weekend.
The week ahead for southern MN looks to be on the cool side for the most part, with a brief warm up on Columbus Day (Monday) and then possibly something a bit unexpected for this time of year into the weekend (right now probably Saturday 10-13). Details below.
First things first, for the most part this week high temperatures will be in the mid 50s with low temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. The exception is Monday where high temperatures will approach 70 though it will be windy so it may not feel that warm. I would expect a relatively high fire danger on Monday also.
For the most part the week looks dry. However, the GFS has been fairly consistent in bringing a strong storm system into the northern plains sometime around Saturday (October 13). Of course this is a long way out yet so confidence is low but it could actually mean some severe weather, possibly as far north as southern MN (depends on storm track, etc). Something to keep an eye on though. If the 00Z GFS were to verify, there could be tornadoes in southern MN down into Iowa though like I said, odds are low at this point. Stay tuned for further updates and if it looks like chances are increasing, I will make a separate post with information about the possible severe weather event. Its worth mentioning that the ECMWF does not currently show a scenario similar to the GFS and the GFS tends to struggle with moisture (which would likely be key if things would come together).
Originally posted at 11AM on 10-6-12